The global semiconductor market is influenced by four key factors

During the two-year period of 2024 and 2025, the semiconductor market will be mainly influenced by four factors.

Firstly, inflation. After Trump returns to the White House, inflation may reappear. He said during his campaign for the US presidency that he would impose a 60% tariff on imported goods from China. Once this idea becomes a reality, it may affect Asian and even European countries.
 

The semiconductor market in 2025 will be more optimistic than in 2024. As of now, the global semiconductor inventory is quite healthy. After the market downturn in 2023, everyone's inventory level has dropped to a relatively low level. Therefore, it is now necessary to raise the inventory level to the normal level. In this context, by 2025, there will be more new demand in the market, and companies will return to a relatively healthy inventory state. The amount of products that people need to purchase will be higher than in 2024, so in principle, the market in 2025 will be better.
 

However, there are also some worrying factors, and more export restrictions are beginning to appear. For example, the Chinese Mainland market is currently restricted by the United States to only do processes larger than 28 nanometers. According to the current information from various channels, the United States may make stricter restrictions on more advanced semiconductor equipment in the future.
 

In the future, as the founder of TSMC said, 'the global market may no longer exist, and everyone will become independent.'. Now, all regions are building their own semiconductor factories, whether in Taiwan, China, Chinese Mainland, Europe, Japan, the United States, South Korea, etc., these regions have new semiconductor factory construction projects, and the phenomenon of regionalization of the global semiconductor industry is increasingly evident. Meanwhile, this regionalization situation is irreversible, and even to a certain extent, the global market may cease to exist.